Around 60% of all U.S. nuclear submarines are now deployed in waters surrounding China a striking sign of how the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific is shifting.
Analysts say if war ever breaks out, it won’t just be about who hunts whom at sea. It will be a contest of strategy, technology, and endurance between two global powers.
The United States has completed a hard-line military deployment across the Indo-Pacific, working closely with allies like Japan and Australia to strengthen the so-called first and second island chains that encircle China. But given the limited conventional combat capabilities of these allies, fully containing the Chinese navy within those chains remains unrealistic.
That’s one reason the Pentagon ordered nearly 60% of its nuclear submarine fleet roughly 40 boats to operate in the Indo-Pacific, especially in waters near China.
According to Chinese military experts, the U.S. Navy has about 72 nuclear submarines in total: 48 attack subs, 14 strategic ballistic missile subs, and around 10 cruise-missile subs.
Officially, the Pentagon says this deployment is meant to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific, while protecting critical U.S. bases such as Guam, Pearl Harbor, and San Diego. But many see it as part of a broader U.S. strategy to dominate the region’s undersea battlefield.
U.S. Admiral Hay recently revealed that by 2040, the Navy’s submarine force could grow to 80 vessels, with attack submarines forming its core giving Washington even greater control beneath the Indo-Pacific seas.
When news of this deployment became public, it triggered a wave of global concern. Having such a large share of the U.S. submarine fleet near China is an unmistakable show of pressure. Some experts warn that in any future U.S.–China conflict, Washington could use submarines to strike directly at Chinese targets.
Many of the submarines stationed nearby are strategic nuclear submarines, capable of carrying long-range missiles that can reach deep into the Chinese mainland.
This situation underscores just how delicate and volatile U.S.–China relations have become. A direct confrontation between the two powers could have unimaginable consequences.
Analysts at the RAND Corporation believe this move is no temporary measure but a long-term strategic plan, driven by China’s rapid naval modernization — including its three operational aircraft carriers and new classes of destroyers and frigates that are quickly narrowing the gap with the U.S. Navy.
Yet, China’s growing anti-submarine capabilities from high-altitude patrol aircraft to advanced sonar-equipped frigates like the Type 054B make it increasingly difficult for American submarines to operate undetected.
So even though 60% of U.S. nuclear submarines are now positioned around China, any future act of hostility may be swiftly detected and decisively countered by China’s expanding anti-submarine and naval defense network.
